History Reveals Insight: What Will the Market Do Next?

In the spirit of making positive statements: Real Estate is going to get better. History says so!

Here are six interesting facts about the past that may give insight into WHEN: (Courtesy of Investment strategist James Swanson, CFA October 8, 2008)

1 - In January of 1970, a bear (down) market started and lasted until May of that year. The market during that time fell 35.4%. In May, a bull (up) market began and lasted until January 1973, bringing a 124% gain in stock values.

2 - In April 1981, another bear market commenced and lasted nearly a year, bringing a 24.7% decline. Then, in March of 1982, the market began to rise and continued doing so until June 1983. The overall gain in this period was 71.7%

3 - July 1990 brought a downward market that lasted three months, until October 1990, at which point equity prices had fallen 22.4%. Then, in the same month, a new, now legendary, bull market took hold and lasted nearly eight years, until July 1998. It delivered at stunning 330.7% gain for the market.

4 - Dating back to 1975, 8 of the last 15 bull markets have started in the Autumn months of September, October and November.

5 - Since 1957 there have been 15 bear markets, as measured from peak to trough, and on average they have lasted 10 months and brought an average decline of 29.4%.

6 - The duration and degree of these bear markets were significantly less than the duration and magnitude of bull markets. During the same period, there were also 15 bull markets, which lasted, on average, 30 months and brought average gains of 112.5%.


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Sincerely,Wendy Stevens